IDC looks back on 2015

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A review of the 2015 ICT predictions for Africa

Based on market events, IDC has achieved an overall rating of 75% or a B+ for their top 10 ICT predictions for Africa for 2015. The rating scale used ranges from a prediction accuracy of 70% or a B rating to a 90% accuracy, or an A++. It takes into consideration key market events that either supported or disproved the IDC predictions.

1. ICT investments addressing African market realities will also fuel gross domestic product (GDP) growth in key countries - B

• The Ethiopia Commodity Exchange (ECX) announced a national traceability system that will involve over five million smallholder farmers engaged in producing multiple commodities traded at the ECX. The system is expected to increase exports of high-quality Ethiopian coffee world-wide and enhance market access for specialty coffee from Ethiopia.

2. Governments with relevant, effective national ICT policies will begin to reap significant economic benefits - B+

• In the overall World Economic Forum Network Readiness Index rankings, SA and Rwanda occupy position three and six in Africa respectively. SA has experienced higher economic impact of ICT, but Rwanda has highest social impact of technology score, through government's use of ICT in providing services to citizens, as well as the One-Laptop-Per-Child policy (SA 15th).

• Investment management firm Convergence Partners has revealed plans to spend R2.5 billion ($200 million) on ICT infrastructure across Africa, with a large chunk of this investment going towards Southern Africa.

• In Kenya, one can now renew a driver's license, book a driving test, and download a temporary driver's license online.

3. The battle for the small and medium-sized business (SMB) market in more developed African countries will start in 2015 - A+

• Facebook's Johannesburg offices and its move further into Africa aims to further support efforts of SMB usage of the platform, usage which Facebook categorises as "sophisticated".

• Private sector donors supporting government SMB initiatives, such as Enterprise Kenya, a government led investment fund to support SMBs in the country.

4. Security concerns will remain as mobile devices, data, and access methods increase - A

• The "Northern Corridor" partner have committed to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to collaborate on preventing and responding to the increasing threats of cybercrime facing the region.

• Country-specific personal data protection will require a domestic presence and local data centers for multinational providers with operations in African countries.

5. External socioeconomic agendas will boost ICT usage, but will face strong resistance without due localization - B+

• World Bank projects stipulate regular and transparent reporting

6. African IT procurement will expand to meet the needs of new clients, new products, and new markets - B+

• Not at as fast a pace as anticipated.

7. Technology will help breach intra-African trade barriers by removing obstacles, increasing efficiency, and encouraging transparency - B

• Whilst a Continental Free Trade Area is on the cards, the legal frameworks to enable this are still outdated.

• The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) announced that it will be partnering with Nigeria's Dangote group to bolster intra-African trade.

8. Mobility will drive digital engagement that integrates the benefits offered by cloud, big data initiatives, and social networking - B+

• 31 government agencies out of a total of 262 have shared their data on the Kenya Open Data platform.

9. Market bifurcation will characterise mobility initiatives as smartphones outpace feature phones - A

• In an attempt to understand the usage experience of millions of people in emerging markets who only have access to slow internet connections, Facebook is adopting a new opt-in initiative for employees called "2G Tuesdays."

10. Cloud adoption will be dictated by business decisions rather than considerations around the technology itself - B

• MTN will enable its business customers to directly connect to Amazon Web Services (AWS).