Credit insurer more optimistic on SA company risk

The assessment is based on the economic, financial and political outlook of the country, and Coface's payment experience and business climate assessment.

The Coface country risk assessment measures the average level of payment defaults by companies in a given country within the framework of their commercial transactions.

SA's business climate assessment is also at A3.

Coface forecasts for SA in 2012 are: GDP growth at 2.3%, inflation at 6%, budget balance at -5.2% of GDP, current account balance at -4.7% of GDP, and public debt at 37.5% of GDP.

The company expected a slowdown in SA's growth in 2012, following a rebound observed in 2010 and 2011.

Other African countries with improving assessments were Tunisia, Ghana and Sierra Leone, with increased ratings of A4, B and C, respectively.

"The world economy is presently marked by divergence. The economic contraction in the Eurozone is worsening (-0.3% currently forecast in 2012 versus -0.1% in 2011), whereas North American growth is stabilising at 2%, and activity is recovering in Japan, with 1.8% growth after posting -0.9% in 2011," Coface said.

The US's A2 assessment was now under positive watch because of improved confidence and consumption of households, an improved labour market, low corporate debt levels and a good performance in payments by US companies.

The Japanese economy was also expected to recover, however Coface said that European companies were still in turmoil, "notably in Portugal".

"The economic contraction in the eurozone is worsening, particularly in Italy, Spain and Portugal."

The growth forecasts for 2012 for Italy and Spain have been revised to -1.5% and -1.2%, respectively.

In January 2012, Coface downgraded these two major eurozone economies to A4 and said that its payment experience with these countries continued to deteriorate in early 2012.

At the same time, Coface observed a marked deterioration in the financial situation of Portuguese companies, adding that the country's recession was likely to deepen even further in 2012.

"Downgraded to A4 in March 2011, then placed under negative watch in September 2011, Portugal has now been lowered by one notch to B."