With Gauteng’s Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni metros at the centre of the contest, the outcome could have significant economic implications.
Speaking at PSG Financial Services’ latest Think Big webinar, journalist Alishia Seckam, political analyst Gareth van Onselen and political commentator Justice Malala examined coalition fatigue, declining African National Congress (ANC) dominance and the challenges facing opposition parties.
The question is whether co-operation can deliver lasting governance improvements, investment and jobs.
“The problem we continue to have is what happens in this interregnum, in this period of transition between the end of the ANC’s dominance and what comes next," Van Onselen said.
Gauteng is likely to offer some of the clearest signs of change. Van Onselen described it as “the most populous province, it’s the most diverse, it’s where you see change first”. Its three metros – Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni – are important not only as electoral battlegrounds, but as a connected economic hub.
A MarkData poll showing the DA ahead in Ekurhuleni, historically an ANC stronghold, points to a shifting picture. But leading the vote does not necessarily mean having enough seats to govern alone.
The ANC’s support is fragmenting, Van Onselen said, with the EFF and MK Party drawing support away from it. The DA is also losing some support to smaller parties, including ActionSA and the FF Plus, though the shift is less pronounced. Votes are spread across more parties, making coalition agreements harder to secure.
For Malala, the problem is not simply that parties disagree. It is that opposition parties often fail to work together, even when they share an interest in changing how a metro is run. He pointed to the tensions between DA leader Helen Zille and ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba, whose refusal to share a stage illustrates how personal and political differences can get in the way of co-operation.
“Quite frankly, I think many, many voters will look at it and say, ‘This is juvenile.’” Small parties can hold the balance of power in a closely divided council. Their support can make or break an administration, and shifting alliances can disrupt plans to improve services and get a municipality back on track.
Van Onselen cautions that coalition fatigue may not drive voters back to established parties. Instead, some may decide that voting is no longer worth the effort. “I think the effect of the fatigue is apathy,” he said.
He suggested turnout could fall as low as 40% in this election, as voters lose faith that their ballots will produce stable government. That would create a further challenge for parties already struggling to build durable coalitions.
Both analysts urged voters to look beyond campaign slogans. A party’s record matters, but so does the detail of its manifesto and whether its promises can realistically be delivered.
“Governance is very complicated,” Van Onselen said. “And if you are serious about understanding whether a promise is sustainable or realistic or not, you need to put in the hard work yourself.”
The stakes extend well beyond politics. When municipalities struggle to maintain infrastructure and provide reliable services, businesses face higher costs and uncertainty. That affects investment and jobs, particularly in major urban centres.
Malala believes there is a real opportunity to turn things around. He pointed to the potholes in Johannesburg that were filled ahead of the G20 Summit, only to reappear afterwards. Short-term fixes are not enough, he argued. Businesses are ready to help, but municipalities need leadership that can sustain progress.
Van Onselen believes parties should also rethink how they negotiate coalitions in Gauteng. Rather than treating Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni as separate political contests, they could work towards a co-ordinated arrangement across all three metros. Malala agreed that the provincial government has a role to play in encouraging that kind of regional co-operation.
Neither analyst expects one municipal election to transform South Africa’s politics overnight. The transition away from ANC dominance is likely to continue towards 2029. The question is whether other parties can turn scattered support into workable governing arrangements – and whether those arrangements can last long enough to improve the lives of residents and give businesses confidence to invest.
Van Onselen believes a co-ordinated approach across Gauteng’s three metros could make a real difference. “You have a stable set of three governments. And I think that would be a massive economic incentive.”
