Global air passenger demand declined 0.8% year on year in August 2026, with a sharp drop in Middle East traffic weighing on overall performance despite continued growth across Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia and Europe.
The latest figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show that global revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) fell 0.8% compared with August 2025, while capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), increased 0.3%.
The global passenger load factor consequently fell 0.9 percentage points to 85.1%.
Excluding Middle Eastern carriers, however, global demand increased 0.6%, although this was slower than the 1.2% growth recorded in July.
IATA said the results point to weaker global connectivity in August, with higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty potentially affecting travel budgets and demand in the months ahead.
“Global demand for air transport contracted by 0.8% compared to August 2025 as the recovery trajectory for carriers in the Middle East was interrupted,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA senior vice-president sustainability and chief economist.
“The coming months will reveal whether travellers, whose purchasing power has been reduced by higher energy prices, are adjusting their travel budgets, and might be discouraged from travelling due to the prevailing geopolitical instability.”
Middle East downturn weighs on global market
The Middle East recorded the steepest decline among the major aviation regions, with passenger demand down 14.6% year on year in August. Capacity fell 9.3%, while the regional load factor declined 4.9 percentage points to 78.9%.
The deterioration reversed the gradual stabilisation seen in previous months, with traffic on Middle East-Asia routes declining 11.7%, compared with an 8.6% contraction in July.
The impact of the region's downturn was significant enough to pull global demand into negative territory. Without Middle Eastern carriers, total global demand would have increased 0.6%.
Africa among regions recording growth
African airlines recorded one of the stronger performances in August, with international passenger demand increasing 6.7% year on year.
Capacity expanded at a faster rate, rising 8.3%, resulting in a 1.2 percentage-point decline in the load factor to 78.4%.
Latin American airlines recorded the strongest international demand growth among the major regions, with RPKs up 6.7% and capacity increasing 6.4%. The region's load factor rose 0.2 percentage points to 84.8%.
European carriers recorded a 2.1% increase in demand against 2.8% capacity growth, while Asia-Pacific demand declined 0.1%. North American carriers saw demand fall 1.7%, with capacity down 1.1%.
Asia-Europe connectivity continues to expand
Within international markets, performance remained mixed.
The Europe-Asia corridor continued to grow strongly, with traffic up 12.2% year on year. By contrast, transatlantic traffic declined 2.4%, with weaker demand from several markets including the UK and France.
Asia-Pacific traffic within the region fell 2%, with capacity declining for a fourth consecutive month. Traffic between Asia and North America, however, increased 2.5%.
Domestic travel remains uneven
Global domestic passenger demand declined 0.5% in August, while domestic capacity increased 0.7%. The resulting load factor fell 1.1 percentage points to 85.3%.
China was a notable exception, with domestic traffic increasing 5.8%, supported by summer travel demand.
India recorded a particularly sharp 7.5% decline, while domestic demand fell 2.9% in the US and 2% in Japan.
Brazil was among the stronger domestic markets, with demand increasing 4.3% and capacity up 8%.
Airlines remain cautiously optimistic
Despite the August slowdown, forward capacity indicates that airlines are still planning for growth.
IATA said October schedules are showing 2% growth in available seats, suggesting cautious optimism among carriers as they plan ahead.
For the industry, the key question is whether August represents a temporary disruption driven primarily by the Middle East or the beginning of a broader moderation in air travel as consumers face higher energy costs and continued geopolitical uncertainty.
For now, the regional divergence remains significant: strong growth in African and Latin American international markets contrasts with contraction in North America and the Middle East, while capacity growth continues to outpace passenger demand globally.
