Gautrain setting wheels in motion for growth

Gautrain User Guide

Coming after early criticism that the rapid rail link served only a narrow segment of the population, the investment confirms its growing popularity. However, questions remain over the level of return on investment and the extent of the province's subsidy. The train's limited interconnectedness with other transport systems, as well as its affordability, have also long been sources of criticism.

The Gautrain Management Agency has started a feasibility study, due to be completed by next year, for an expansion of the network - about 200km of additional rail link. The agency was created by the provincial government to manage the Gautrain project, which was built at a cost of more than R32bn - after a forecast cost of R7bn when initially proposed.

The planned extension includes an expansion to the west of Johannesburg, towards Klerksdorp and Rustenburg and to the south to include Soweto and further afield to Vereeniging and Sasolburg.

The Gautrain "has changed people's perception of public transport", Gauteng transport MEC Ismail Vadi says. "Nearly 77% of Gautrain users are car owners who have elected to change modes from private vehicle use to public transport" he said

High cost of patronage guarantees

However, the service has not come cheap for the provincial government, which has had to fork out patronage guarantees to Bombela Concession Company, which designed, built and operates the Gautrain.

The guarantees are calculated on the basis of the number of commuters who travel on the Gautrain. In the event that these guaranteed numbers are not reached, the provincial government has to compensate Bombela for the difference. Last year, the provincial government paid Bombela R1.03bn in patronage guarantees, up from 2013's figure of R830m.

Transport analyst, Paul Browning, says patronage guarantees were at their lowest (meaning a high number of passengers were using the Gautrain) in the middle of last year, due to the implementation of e-tolls.

But passenger numbers dropped early this year as commuters drifted back to using their cars, when "it became clear that there was no effective enforcement of e-tolls".

Gautrain "underperforming" on passenger numbers

Transport analyst, Vaughan Mostert, says the Gautrain is "underperforming" on passenger numbers. The Gautrain Management Agency's estimation at the start of the service was that it would carry 100,000 - 120,000 passengers a day by 2010. It is carrying roughly half of this.

Mostert says options for boosting the number of passengers using the service include reducing fares.

"This will lead to strong extra demand. Take out seats, if necessary, to accommodate the extra passengers," Mostert says.

Support from province-wide bus network advised

He advises against the extension of the Gautrain, saying the government and industry should get other formal forms of transport, such as bus operations, "fixed up". This would result in 200,000 - 300,000 more people using public transport.

Elaborating on the criticism that Gautrain buses are a wasted resource since they mostly run empty, Mostert says the buses should be reorganised to do "real work" alongside the 3,000 buses owned by operators such as Putco, Soshanguve Bus Service and Gauteng Coaches.

Browning says the Gautrain should be complemented by a province-wide bus network that intersects with it and Metrorail.

However, Vadi says Gautrain stations are developing as "model integration nodes", where passengers from the bus rapid transit systems, Metrorail and minibus taxis could transfer to their "public transport mode of choice".

The Gautrain Management Agency is developing a business case that will include a funding model for the purchase of 48 rail carriages, Vadi says. The procurement will take place through a competitive bidding process, according to the agency.

Challenges facing Gautrain extension

Meanwhile, Bombela plans remedial work between Park Station and Rosebank, at its own cost and risk, to fix water leakage problems.

Browning says the planners of the Gautrain anticipated that most passengers would be making shorter trips than is the case. "The fact that the planners got this crucial element wrong is a cause for concern and must raise questions about future plans for extensions," Browning says.

A lingering challenge for the Gautrain is its limited coverage of the province, he says. "The Gauteng government has said clearly that rail will be the backbone of public transport in the province. But unless the backbone is surrounded by flesh, it will be of little use."

Despite criticisms, the Gautrain has become a permanent fixture as an alternative source of transport and perhaps the most prominent legacy project of the 2010 Fifa World Cup.

The real challenge is how far it will extend beyond its popular and convenient run to OR Tambo International Airport.

Source: Business Day