SA bulk exports fall 4.9% y/y in August to 12.6-million tons

©Peter Titmuss via 123RF - Iron ore, Saldanha Bay Terminal

The July drop was in part due to the closure of the coal line between Mpumalanga and Richards Bay for the annual maintenance period between July 11 and July 24. On average, 230,000 tonnes per day is railed down the corridor, but export orders can be filled from the stockpile at Richards Bay Coal Terminal during the maintenance period. The maintenance was normally carried out in May, but shifted to July this year at the request of coal miners, as overseas coal demand is seasonally weak due to the Northern Hemisphere summer.

The June and April y/y increases of 3.4% and 6.2% were the only two y/y rises in the first six months of 2016 after declines of 6.1%, 11.7%, 15.7% and 12.2% in May, March, February and January respectively. This followed a 7.3% increase in 2015 to a record annual tonnage of 168-million tons. Despite the June and April y/y increases, total bulk exports are still down 7.5% y/y in the first seven months of 2016.

Bulk exports out of Richards Bay, which are mostly coal, fell by 16.9% y/y in August to 6.4-million tonnes after plunging by 18.5% y/y in July to 6.2-million tonnes from 6.9-million tonnes in June and growing by 8.2% in 2015 to 93-million tonnes. As Richards Bay Coal Terminal no longer releases operational statistics, economists are finding it more difficult to track economic performance in SA in a timeous manner.

Despite the 40% plunge in the iron ore price in 2015, bulk exports out of Saldanha, which are mostly iron ore, increased by 12.7% in 2015 to 63.4-million tonnes, but in July 2016 there was a 17.8% y/y fall to 4.3-million tonnes before a 12.1% y/y increase in August to 5.1-million tonnes.

The surprise in the August data was the 11.5% y/y rise in bulk exports, which are mostly grains and sugar, from other ports such as Durban to 1,048,320 tons after falling by 19.3% in 2015 to 11.6-million tonnes.

Source: BDpro