According to the South African Rooibos Council, the industry provides 4500 jobs and, while recent reports have speculated that 2012 will be another successful year, doubts are now being raised regarding how long this boom is likely continue. According to Rooibos Ltd, the price and demand of this specialised crop are strong, but anxiety about future weather patterns remains. There is, however, a difference between climate change and climate variability.
Climate change is the permanent departure from the average and it is mainly due to human causes. Climate variability, on the other hand, is a normal variation. Changes must be observed over a very long period of time, more than a few years, to determine future patterns. Generally speaking, however, we are finding that production risk is on the increase, whether it is due to climate change or climate variability.
The 2011 Eden Study, undertaken by Santam in partnership with the CSIR, University of Cape Town and WWF, demonstrated that there are risk drivers, or causes, which can already be influenced to reduce our risk and improve climate resilience of communities. The study also shows that the proactive management of ecological systems has the potential to offset most of the future increases in risk related to climatic changes.
However, rooibos is a specialised crop that only flourishes in dry and sandy soils, specifically those found in the Cederberg region of the Western Cape. Despite numerous attempts to recreate this natural habitat and grow the plant in the US and Australia, each effort has met with failure.
Several reports last month suggested hotter, drier conditions for this region over the next several decades. Which then begs the question: Is it possible for a crop as selective as this one to thrive, or even survive, irrespective of whether the changes in weather patterns are attributed to short- or long-term effects? How can farmers mitigate the threat, proactively manage the crop and protect their investment?
The best approach to improve long-term crop sustainability is by mitigating as much risk as possible and by proactively managing this intricate ecological area. Santam suggests the following actions:
The problem in planning for climate change is whether it is part of natural variability or real change and if it is real change, what will be the extent? Despite the unanswered questions in predicting climatic patterns, however, every farmer can and should take decisive actions to mitigating potential upsets damage to his crop.
