The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, up 1.9% from its revised July level and 2.5% from a year earlier.
“August’s increase in global food prices is a warning that the risk premium is returning to food markets: climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics are converging to tighten supply expectations, showing that resilience, open trade and secure input flows are now central to global food-price stability,” said Maximo Torero, FAO chief economist.
The cereal price index increased by 2.2% from July, with international prices of all major grains rising on the back of robust import demand, growing concerns over crop prospects and continued uncertainty surrounding critical trade flows.
Global wheat prices increased by 2.6% in August and were 15.0% above their year-earlier level. The increase was driven by persistent disruptions to Black Sea export logistics, lower production prospects in much of Europe following hot and dry weather, and a weaker United States dollar.
World maize prices increased by 2.5% from July, driven by mounting concerns over yield prospects in parts of the United States of America, deteriorating production prospects in the European Union, strong demand from the ethanol and feed sectors, disruptions to inputs because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions to Ukraine’s export flows.
The all rice price index increased by 0.5%, underpinned by sustained purchases by Asian and African countries.
The vegetable oil price index increased by 1.1% from July, reflecting higher world palm and soy oil prices, driven by robust global import demand and concerns over the impact of El Niño-related conditions on production prospects in Southeast Asia.
Meanwhile, quotations for rapeseed and sunflower oils dropped slightly amid expectations of ample supplies in the year ahead.
The meat price index rose by 1.0% in the month, with poultry, pig and ovine meat prices all higher.
The increase in pig meat quotations was driven principally by high temperatures that slowed animal growth in the European Union. International bovine meat prices declined, however, as Chinese import quota allocations intensified competition among exporters in Brazil and Australia for alternative market destinations.
The dairy price index rose by 2.3% from July, with much of the increase driven by tightening milk supplies in the European Union amid hot and dry weather.
The sugar price index increased by 11.9% in August.
The surge reflected expectations of lower sugar beet yields in the European Union due to adverse weather, concerns over the impact of El Niño on production prospects in key producing countries in Asia, lower sugar production in Brazil, and India's announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports.
Global cereal production in 2026 is now forecast at 2 980 million tonnes, down 2.0% from 2025 but still the second-largest harvest on record, according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also released by FAO.
The forecast for world maize output has been revised down to 1 309 million tonnes, as worsening crop prospects in France and Poland are anticipated to more than offset better-than-earlier-expected yields in Argentina and Brazil.
By contrast, the forecast for global wheat production has been raised to 810.7 million tonnes, which would be 3.8% below the 2025 level but still represent the second-largest outturn on record.
Global rice output is anticipated to decline to 553.1 million tonnes, down by 1.9% in 2026/27 from the all-time high reached in the previous season, due to reduced producer margins and weather conditions mostly associated with El Niño.
FAO’s updated forecast for world total cereal utilisation in 2026/27 stands at 2 965 million tonnes, 0.2% higher than in the previous year, with utilisation of coarse grains and rice expected to increase while that of wheat is expected to decline.
World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 are forecast to reach 947.2 million tonnes, slightly above opening levels due in part to a build-up in wheat reserves in the Russian Federation and Ukraine linked to restricted export routes.
The resulting world cereal stocks-to-use ratio at the end of seasons in 2026/27 is forecast at 31.6%, down from 31.9% in the previous season, but still indicating a relatively comfortable global supply situation from a historical perspective.
FAO also forecasts that world trade in cereals will likely decline from record levels in 2026/27 to 509.3 million tonnes.
