Boeing forecasts need for 41,030 new aeroplanes in next 20 years

23 Jun 2017

Boeing has raised its forecast for new aeroplane demand, projecting the need for 41,030 new aeroplanes over the next 20 years valued at $6.1 trillion.

Boeing forecasts need for 41,030 new aeroplanes in next 20 years

The company’s annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) was released at the Paris Air Show, with total aeroplane demand rising 3.6% over last year’s forecast.

“Passenger traffic has been very strong so far this year, and we expect to see it grow 4.7% each year over the next two decades,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “The market is especially hungry for single-aisle aeroplanes as more people start travelling by air.”

The single-aisle segment will see the most growth over the forecast, fuelled by low-cost carriers and emerging markets. 29,530 new aeroplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of almost 5 percent over last year.

The forecast for the widebody segment includes 9,130 aeroplanes, with a large wave of potential replacement demand beginning early in the next decade. With more airlines shifting to small and medium/large widebody aeroplanes like the 787 and 777X, the primary demand for very large aeroplanes going forward will be in the cargo market. Boeing projects the need for 920 new production widebody freighters over the forecast period.

New aeroplane deliveries through 2036 by size

Aeroplane type	Seats	Total deliveries	Market value
Regional jets	90 and below	2,370	$110 billion
Single-aisle	90 – 230	29,530	$3,180 billion
Small widebody	200 – 300	5,050	$1,340 billion
Medium/Large widebody	300 and above	3,160	$1,160 billion
Freighter widebody	--	920	$260 billion
Total	--	41,030	$6.1 trillion

The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total aeroplane deliveries over the next two decades. Worldwide, 57% of the new deliveries will be for airline growth, while 43% will be for replacement of older aeroplanes with new, more fuel-efficient jets.