CEC lowered SA's 2011 wheat output forecast

Reuters reports that South Africa lowered its 2011 wheat output forecast by two percent to 1.773 million tonnes from 1.808 million tonnes in the previous forecast. In its fifth survey for winter crops, the government's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) said drought conditions in the Free State province were behind the decrease.

It said further that the area cultivated under wheat was left unchanged at 604,700 hectares.

According to Bloomberg's Business Week, the barley crop forecast was increased 3.3 percent to 284,150 tons while the canola estimate was unchanged at 59,490 tons, Rona Beukes, a spokesman for the Pretoria-based Crop Estimates Committee, said. The wheat forecast is lower than the 1.8 million-ton estimate of three traders surveyed by Bloomberg.

According to the CEC 2011 output forecast document, while the expected production in the Free State decreased by 33 750 tons or 6,5% to 483 750 tons, the expected production in the Western Cape and in the Northern Cape remained unchanged at 636 000 tons and 273 000 tons, respectively. The total area estimate for wheat remained unchanged at 604 700 ha. The increase in the expected production of malting barley can mainly be attributed to favourable weather conditions in the production areas, as well as better cultivars.

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View the CEC 2011 output forecast document (PDF)