The Indlulamithi SA Scenarios initiative was established in 2018 to explore what a socially cohesive South Africa could look like, not by predicting what lies ahead, but by broadening the national conversation and connecting present choices with future consequences.
Launched in 2019, the annual Barometer tracks South Africa against these scenarios, with the latest iteration extending the horizon to 2035 and identifying three key drivers: the low-growth trap, State capacity and accountability, and internal insecurity. Together, these point to three possible futures: Hadeda Home, defined by blame and paralysis; Vulture Culture, marked by deepening scavenging and institutional decay; and Weaver Work, characterised by co-operation to rebuild institutions after significant collapse.
President Cyril Ramaphosa drew directly on the Indlulamithi Scenarios 2035 in his 2024 Opening of Parliament Address, saying the Government of National Unity had placed South Africa on a path towards a “co-operation nation”. Consequently, the Medium-Term Development Plan 2024–2029 adopted Weaver Work as the government’s preferred scenario.
But this risks overlooking the possibility that the other two scenarios are also unfolding, alongside shifts and setbacks within each. This is where the Barometer is crucial: tracking which scenario is emerging, how it is changing and what is driving it.
Although Eskom reported last month that South Africa had gone 448 consecutive days without load-shedding, and GDP grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026, the Weaver Work Scenario suggests these gains have done little to ease South Africans’ anger and resentment over the State’s inability to reduce unemployment and crime.
Furthermore, The Auditor-General’s latest 2024/25 report records only 39 clean audits among 257 municipalities. None of the eight metropolitan municipalities achieved a clean audit. Metros cater to about 24.9 million people connecting households and investors with water, electricity and roads, to waste-removal services and planning approvals.
As we head towards the Local Government Elections (LGE), the focus shifts to this crucial tier of government, where active citizenship matters. Government has constitutional responsibilities, but building a viable society cannot be outsourced to a State that is unable to deliver even the most basic services.
Business drives employment and investment, but there is still little evidence of an activist business sector contributing to the greater good of society. Civil society keeps democratic spaces open and holds power to account, yet limited resources have contributed to its erosion over the years.
The Barometer enables society to understand which scenario is emerging and which of the key drivers has the strongest pull. This provides stakeholders with research-based evidence to frame their responses and mitigation strategies in collaboration with one another.
Hadeda Home, Vulture Culture and Weaver Work can co-exist, sometimes within the same institution. What matters is which tendencies are becoming dominant, what drives them and what choices might alter their direction.
That is the discipline we need now: to look above the trees without pretending the various journeys towards our future are simple and straightforward. On Barometer Day the evidence will show whether our choices are making that future plausible and what must change to date to achieve the desired future.
