LONDON, UK: The index has fallen for the third month in a row and consumer confidence in the UK is down to -31, where it was in April this year. Previously, it had only been as low on 2 other occasions: during the downturn of 2008 and 2009 and in the turbulent early months of 1990. On both occasions, the decline in consumer confidence mirrored a slide into recession.
Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research, comments: "With an increasing number of indicators suggesting the economy is either stagnating or returning to recession, the continuing loss of consumer confidence is a major worry for the government. However, while there has been a 4-point drop in consumers' general view of the economic situation over the next 12 months, there has been a small improvement in how they view their own financial situations, suggesting that people are adapting to the austere economic climate."
UK Consumer Confidence Measures - August 2011
The overall index score this month has decreased by 1 point to -31, 13 points lower than this time last year. Two of the measures saw small increases, 2 stayed at the same level as July 2011 and 1 measure decreased this month. The annual moving average drops 1 point to -25.
Measure | August 2011 | July 2011 | August 2010 | Overall Index Score | -31 | -30 | -18 |
Personal Financial situation over last 12 months | -24 | -25 | -12 |
Personal Financial situation over next 12 months | -11 | -12 | -3 |
General Economic situation over last 12 months | -57 | -57 | -43 |
General Economic situation over next 12 months | -31 | -27 | -14 |
Climate for major purchases | -31 | -31 | -20 |
Personal financial situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has increased 1 point this month to -24; this is 12 points lower than this time last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has increased by 1 point this month to -11; this is 8 points lower than August '10.
General economic situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has stayed the same this month at -57; 14 points lower than this time last year.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next 12 months has decreased by 4 points to -31, 17 points lower than August '10.
Climate for major purchases
The major purchases measure has stayed the same this month, at -31, which is 11 points lower than this time last year.
Savings index
The 'now is a good time to save' Index, has decreased 3 points to -10, which is 4 points lower than August '10.
About the survey
- The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK NOP was conducted amongst a sample of 2000 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission. Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
- Interviewing was carried out 5-14 August 2011. The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%
- Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am; the release date for September is Friday 30 September 2011.
- This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.
About GfK NOP
GfK NOP Ltd is part of the GfK Group and a leading market research agency in the UK and internationally. It is a renowned supplier of market information and insight, offering sector specialists and best-in-field research for qualitative, quantitative, ethnographic, omnibus and online research services.
Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission