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Grain prices lower after USDA crop report surprise

Grain futures closed mostly lower on last week after the key US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) crop report on surprised the markets with an increase in the forecast.
Grain prices lower after USDA crop report surprise

"Soya was higher in Chicago‚ but maize dropped due to the USDA report and we followed‚" Vrystaat Mielies grains trader Hansie Swanepoel said.

The September white maize contract closed down 80c at R2‚320.20 a ton‚ the December white maize contract was up R3 at R2‚344 a ton‚ and the March 2014 white maize contract slipped R2 to R2‚327 a ton.

September yellow maize closed down R4 at R2‚130 a ton‚ the December yellow maize contract shed R6 to R2‚170 a ton and the March 2014 yellow maize contract fell R8 to R2‚137 a ton.

September wheat slumped R39 to R3‚350 a ton‚ and December wheat shed R1 to R3‚367 a ton.

Dow Jones Newswires reported that US maize prices fell about 2% after US forecasters surprised analysts by raising their projections for the size of this year's crop.

The corn harvest will total a record 13.843bn bushels‚ the USDA estimated in a closely watched monthly crop report‚ slightly increasing its forecast from last month.

Analysts had expected the USDA to trim its projection to about 13.6bn bushels‚ because hot‚ dry weather has affected parts of the Midwest‚ including big farming states such as Iowa and Illinois.

The USDA said expected declines in corn yields in parts of the Midwest would be offset by higher output in the south and Great Plains.

Drought affects soy bean prices

The recent spate of drought did‚ however‚ prompt the USDA to trim expected output for soybeans‚ which have a later growing season and have been more susceptible than corn to the adverse weather.

The government trimmed its forecast for soybean production to 3.149bn bushels this year‚ down 3% from its estimate last month and in line with analysts' expectations. Traders pushed soybean futures higher after the report.

Maize futures for December delivery‚ the most-active contract‚ were down 11c or 2.3% at $4.61 1/2 a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery‚ the most-active contract‚ recently were up 29 1/2c or 2.2% at $13.87 3/4 a bushel.

If the USDA forecast for corn production is met‚ it would break the record set in 2009‚ when farmers produced 13.09bn bushels.

South African maize futures are down more than 40% from their record settlement last August‚ when fear over the US drought were at a peak.

Farmers planted the largest US corn crop in decades this spring‚ and weather conditions for corn were favourable in July‚ when the crop largely underwent its main growth stage.

The USDA increased projected corn yields to 155.3 bushels an acre‚ which would be the third-highest in history‚ up from the August forecast of 154.4 bushels. Analysts had forecast a reading of 153.9 bushels an acre.

The USDA trimmed projected soybean yields to 41.2 bushels an acre‚ down from its estimate of 42.6 last month. The agency lowered its forecast due to expectations for weaker yields in Iowa and Illinois‚ the biggest producers of the oilseed in the US.

Wheat futures fell on the USDA's maize supply estimate. Higher maize production lowers demand prospects for wheat‚ because the two grains are substitutes in animal feed.

CBOT December wheat recently was down 4c or 0.6% at US$6.44 a bushel.

Source: I-Net Bridge

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