UK mobile broadband network upgrade to LTE not economically viable until 2015

Due to the dense deployment needed to meet coverage requirements, UK HSPA networks will be able to handle current and future traffic demands in the medium-term. Informa does not expect traffic congestion to start appearing until 2013 and even then only in certain hotspot areas. As such, large-scale LTE deployments do not offer an economically viable solution to meet traffic demand, unless user behaviour changes significantly, putting additional strain on mobile broadband networks.

"UK mobile broadband operators are faced with fierce competition while margins from voice are shrinking. Even though there is growing demand for mobile data by smartphones and USB modems, current UK mobile network deployments are so dense that it would make the introduction of LTE both an investment heavy and somewhat unjustifiable decision," said Dimitris Mavrakis, a senior analyst for Informa Telecoms & Media.

The cost of a new LTE

"By upgrading current HSPA networks, UK mobile operators will be able to meet traffic demands and alleviate capacity constraints until 2015, after which the upgrade to LTE may be justifiable since economies of scale for hardware will have reduced infrastructure costs. Plus, a complete LTE ecosystem will be established, including handsets and portable devices."

Informa estimates that a new LTE deployment will cost an additional US$58 million compared to upgrading existing networks, assuming that the LTE deployment begins during 2013. The cost of each gigabyte (cost/GB) of traffic on the network is US$6.5 during 2011, gradually declining to under US$2 during 2015. Given that network deployment is primarily coverage driven and networks are densely deployed, there is significant unused capacity in the network throughout the forecast period, increasing cost/GB above average values.

Planning tool

Informa has developed a mobile broadband network planning tool that allows modelling of mobile broadband networks in order to calculate Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and cost to transfer a GB (cost/GB) over the mobile broadband network.

This tool also allows the identification of cost drivers in the mobile broadband network and provides visibility for a variety of upgrades, showing the most cost effective way to upgrade in order to meet traffic demands and proactively act to maintain high standards on user experience. Informa's new software sits alongside its wealth of market data and forecasts to assist its operator and infrastructure clients in effective forward planning.