Consumer confidence in the UK drops again

Confidence in their personal financial situation over the last 12 months stayed the same this month. The 'major purchase Index' increased by eight points this month, and is now -16.

Index score July 2009 - July 2010

Nick Moon, MD of GfK NOP Social Research, comments: "Given that consumer confidence measures are normally good predictors of what the economy itself will do a few months later, the continuing slide in the Index makes a double dip recession look more of a possibility as each month goes by. It's possible that respondents are already factoring into their view of the economy over the next 12 months the likely recessionary impact of the government's announcement about the level of spending cuts it wishes to make, but if they are not then the prognosis is even more gloomy."

"The one part of the Index to buck the trend was whether now is a good time for major purchases, which rose by 8 points this month. This might be people thinking they should buy now before VAT goes up, or might reflect a view that the poor economic conditions mean there are bargains to be had. It should also be noted that this item was the equal biggest faller on last month's index, so this may be in part a correction."

UK Consumer Confidence Measures - July 2010

The overall index score this month dropped by three points to -22, three points higher than this time last year. Three of the five measures this month decreased, with one measure staying at the same level as June and one measure increasing. The annual moving average stays the same this month at -18.

Personal financial situation

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year has stayed the same this month at -14; this is five points higher than this time last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next year decreased by four points to -6, this is six points lower than July '09.

General economic situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has dropped by two points to -48; twenty four points higher than this time last year.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has decreased by thirteen points to -25, seventeen points lower than July '09.

Climate for major purchases

The major purchases measure has increased by eight points this month to -16; nine points higher than this time last year.

Savings index

The 'now is a good time to save' Index, has increased two points to -2, which is ten points higher than July '09.

About the GfK NOP Consumer Confidence survey

Any published material requires a reference to both GfK NOP and the European Commission e.g. 'Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission'.

GfK NOP Ltd is part of the GfK Group and a leading market research agency in the UK and internationally. It is a renowned supplier of market information and insight, offering sector specialists and best-in-field research for qualitative, quantitative, ethnographic, omnibus and online research services.