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Botswana coal industry is at a crossroads
In a Mail & Guardian Online personal opinion piece by Professor Roman Grynberg from the Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis, he acknowledges that at some point this year the government of Botswana and its neighbours will have to make a decision that will shape the economic future of the region and induce by far the biggest infrastructure investment in the country's history - a new railway to the coast.
"The question [...] is the direction of the proposed railway," Grynberg says. "Should it be to the Atlantic Ocean, that is, the Trans-Kalahari route to Walvis Bay in Namibia, or through Zimbabwe to the Indian Ocean in southern Mozambique?"
There are four known multibillion-tonne coal deposits on the eastern edge of the Central Kalahari Karoo Basin. Botswana government officials believe that these deposits could result in exporting as much as 90 megatonnes a year, more than South Africa's 2010 export of 70 megatonnes. The price of coal, which has risen dramatically on world markets over the past decade, means that exporting coal from Botswana to India or even China would prove profitable with a new and efficient railroad. At present there are two competing projects for a railroad across Southern Africa. While the Trans-Kalahari to Walvis Bay project avoids South Africa, because shipping coal downhill along the Limpopo is simply cheaper, the Ponta Techobanine route plans to ships coal across the shorter, more direct route to Richards Bay or Durban - which means, however, crossing the Waterberg and Drakensberg mountains.
"Both routes are problematic and whatever decision the Botswana government takes will mean someone will end up unhappy," Grynberg says in his Mail and Guardian Online article. Supporting Walvis Bay as destination means that coal will end on the "wrong ocean", the Atlantic, whereas the entire coal market is in India and China. The Ponta Techobanine, on the other hand, has environmental issues- the railway crosses the Lubombo Conservation Area and the Maputo Elephant Reserve, and while South Africa has considerable interests in coal delivery to or from Durban and Richards Bay, it is nevertheless concerned about the environmental impacts of the proposal. "If Botswana and its neighbours do not decide soon on the railway, they will literally miss the boat to China and their huge coal reserves may well become white elephants of no commercial value," Grynberg concludes.
Read the full article on http://mg.co.za.
