There is one indicator/trend that will trump all others in 2009 - and I suspect for quite some time thereafter as well. Vision and values, or V2 as we call it at RadMark, is going to define the nature of business relationships - be they definitional stakeholders such as customers, employees, investors and competitors or instrumental stakeholders such NGOs, special interest groups, Government or the media as a whole.
The financial crisis of 2008 has placed V2 squarely at the centre of intelligent commercial thought and as a business goes about developing its storyline so those that can clearly articulate their vision and values will take the advantage.
As for nine industry trends in 2009, these would be my guess:
An emphasis on vision and values (V2): as the market contracts and business is forced to adapt, so too will there be a greater emphasis on vision and values. V2 will either enable the partnership between a company and its strategic partners or bring about its dissolution.
Developing the storyline: leadership in tough times requires a storyline suitable for the audience - as the storyline is developed, so the appeal to investors and advertisers will grow.
The use of price promotion to manage a contracting market: panic-discounting belies the insecurities of the discounter - price promotion linked to the value proposition will be the way to ride out the commercial storm and those able to do it in a manner that combines empathy for the customer, with commercial savvy, will prevail.
The value of cash: managing cash flow in a downturn and a prudent approach to protecting cash reserves will ensure that a company remains pointed in the right direction with a focus on the horizon - the tail of the storm is out there; the trick is to stay afloat long enough to see it.
Investment in research: there is no better time to invest in research - it's the smartest way to develop the storyline and to provide insights into a brand and its audience whatever the type of media consumption.
Investment in personal development: the tougher the market the easier it is to hide - this is a really good time to take that course or finish that degree. Personal development makes it easier to stay productive and gives you enough confidence to sustain visibility - regardless of how often you hear the word no.
Maximising the opportunity presented by the 2009 General Elections: the General Election presents an opportunity for all media types - those that have been working on developing relationships over the past couple of years will see a better share of that opportunity than those who have been waiting for it to fall into their laps.
Preparation for the 2010 FIFA World Cup: like any good football match, 2010 is going to have its share of thrills and spills for media in SA - innovation will be the key, as will an ability to leverage value within ASA and 2010 LOC guidelines. If you want to spot the trend, check out what the hawkers are doing at each major intersection.
Playing in the media convergence space: Still the most overrated media space of all, a willingness to play in the convergence area goes only so far as the development of core competencies - by that I mean the ability to ask the right questions, whether you understand the answers or not.
Around the world, enthusiasm over mobile media has cooled considerably - SA is one of the only countries in the world still willing to be seduced by those pundits desperate to be accredited with spotting ‘the next best thing'. At best, mobile and digital media will continue to play second fiddle to those traditional media types that can show an ability to at least ‘maintain a signal' in developing a relationship with their audience.
Graham Willcock is the recently appointed MD of radio media sales house Radmark (www.radmark.co.za).
Fred Roed
Wow, Graham, that's a bold statement...-
"At best, mobile and digital media will continue to play second fiddle to those traditional media types that can show an ability to at least ‘maintain a signal' in developing a relationship with their audience."
That's certainly a bold statement you're making.
You sound eerily similar to the editor of the San Francisco Chronicle (just before he laid off 1/4 of his staff) when he said that online classified advertising is merely a passing fad.
I think you'll find that a lot of your points are playing right into the hands of digital marketing (e.g. developing the storyline, elections, building relationships) - and that the convergence of online and traditional media, incl. radio, is not just a fad, but it's an inevitable reality of the near future in SA.
I admire your courage with such a big statement, but we'll chat this time next year on whether digital marketing is still playing second fiddle to traditional.
I predict that by then convergence will be firmly entrenched in marketing strategy in SA.
btw - digital marketing is still cooking up a storm internationally - and even since the recession went into overdrive it seems like it's still hurting less than traditional media... Posted on 19 Jan 2009 15:52
I agree with Fred... a bold statement indeed and not one I would fully agree with. Yes the convergence didn't happen as quickly as was predicted or entrenched itself as deeply as previously thought but that is certainly not say it won't happen or that the hype is dying!
A quick glance at the AMPS 2008a shows that 21 million South African adults (16+) owns a cellphone and that two-thirds of our population have access to one with growth among all ages. Across the week, 2,419 million access the internet, this time growth boosted by the lucrative 16-24 age group.
Numbers to keep into consideration when planning your next campaign.
Yes, these channels don't have the seemingly impressive overall coverage and reach that the traditional channels have but these traditional channels are suffering from increased media fragmentation so how much bang for your buck do you really get??? And don't think we only have to count the heads per Rand reached but the relevance of the channel to the target audience. The savvy consumer of today needs to be engaged by brands. Inform them, entice them, but don't forget to strike up a conversation with them. Enter digital and mobile into the media convergence space. Posted on 20 Jan 2009 12:38
This position and sad statement, is really why a sales house like radmark will remain static as the industry changes before it eyes. Wake up to the fact that we are a third world country that could potentially be in digital conversation with the mass market and not just the niche upper LSMs that you seek to sponge off. Traditional marketing is dying, digital market and the glaring fact that in your hand/pocket for me than 80% of your waking/working moments is a communication billboard so dynamic its uses far outstrip the legacy media.
Mobile can replicate all legacy media and has 7 new benefits: •The cellphone is first personal mass media channel •The cellphone is permanently carried •The cellphone is always on •Only the cellphone provides a built-in payment channel •The cellphone is available at point of creative impulse, enabling user-generated content •The cellphone is first media with near-perfect audience data •Only the cellphone captures social context of media consumption
I am greatly saddened by your position and wish Radmark all the best when these prospect and more economical viable solutions are lost to your client base. What will you say to the business that seeks the best quantifiable direct marketing solution, use TV? Posted on 27 Jan 2009 21:56
I have heard it said that the sign of a weak politician is one who claims to have been misquoted when held to account for a statement made to the press that turns out to have an unfortunate downside.
Now I don’t lay claim to any political ambitions myself but the quote in Bizcommunity recently has raised a number of eyebrows. Now I’m not going to point out that of the nine trends I highlighted in the article Bizcommunity chose trend number 9 as the heading. I’m not going to point out that very few of the eyebrows raised have taken the time to read the article properly either, nor understood the context within which it was written; nor will I point out that Virginia Hollis of The Media Shop said much the same thing two weeks later—her point was ‘I am going to fall off my chair laughing next time a new media person assures me that new media is about to replace traditional media in terms of media spend’. Illustrious company indeed.
So what am I going to point out? Firstly that I stand by what I said. Media convergence in South Africa is overrated and I am astonished at the number of people who think that the way out of a really tough market is to talk media convergence as if it is going to provide us with a magic bullet. It won’t. In fact in a tough market all it does is distract us which is why we have to stay focused on the present. Does that mean we shouldn’t be doing anything in the new media space? Besides the question proving there is such a thing as a stupid question the answer is of course we should. We need to play in the new media space because that’s how we develop new media competencies. Why do we need these competencies? New media wrecks traditional media economies and that brings me to my second point. When new media arrives in a meaningful way (and it will) you had better be sure the corporate culture, and its resourcing, is ready. Playing in that new media space helps you do that but that doesn’t mean setting out with a purpose other than to ask the right questions, even if you don’t understand the answers. You certainly don’t set goals, or revenue targets. You let the market guide you, you develop your core competencies and you pounce when the opportunity presents itself.
Now as for protecting radio - well that would be just plain silly. Radio is the ultimate parallel medium and naturally accommodates Digital and Mobile in the converged media space. RadMark's PowerHouseBrands East Coast Radio, Gagasi, Heart 104.9FM, Jacaranda, Kaya are all successful on-line media properties in their own right (and doing some exciting stuff in mobile too); and my previous experience as Managing Director of autotrader.co.za, the leading niche website in SA, establish my credentials as a media owner who has been there, done that, and reckons that media convergence here in SA, right now, is just plain overrated. Posted on 17 Feb 2009 23:48
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