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[2009 trends] The year of cloud computing and Twitter
This year in South Africa, broadband will become affordable to the man on the street; there'll be more print media cutbacks and closures yet new startups and product innovation; the rise of ultra-portable PCs, netbooks and cloud computing; eBooks and electronic paper will start to mature; and Twitter will becomes a household name...
![[2009 trends] The year of cloud computing and Twitter](https://biz-file.com/c/0901/25067.jpg)
![[2009 trends] The year of cloud computing and Twitter](https://biz-file.com/c/0901/25068.gif)
- Broadband becomes affordable to the man on the street: most commentators agree that 2009 will finally be the year that patient South Africans are rewarded with fast, affordable broadband Internet access. A number of factors such as the 2010 FIFA World Cup, competition amongst service providers, and the completion of the new optical fibre submarine communications cable (SEACOM), will provide South Africans with Telkom-free international bandwidth. The significance of this for the country can't be overstated.
- Dramatic increase in online ad spend: thanks to 2010, now just around the corner, and with the South African Internet population reaching a tipping point, online will be allocated a much bigger slice of the ad spend pie, which currently sits at a little over 1%. Perhaps the real catalyst for increased online ad spend comes ironically as a result of leaner marketing budgets, which will require a stronger focus on ROI and measurability - something online delivers comparatively well.
- More print media cutbacks and closures: the writing was on the wall for print media ever since the Internet became a mass medium and some blundering fool clicked on the first banner ad. The year ahead is most likely a gloomy one for print media executives, both locally and abroad, who spend a disproportionate amount of their time nowadays reshuffling the deckchairs on the Titanic. Not only can we expect more layoffs and cutbacks, but a number of well-known titles will decide to take the walk of shame and switch to publishing online exclusively and follow in the steps of early bell-weathers such as PC Magazine.
- Explosion of the mobile web and iPhone application development: the massive potential of the mobile medium, especially in Africa, has been discussed ad nauseam over the last couple of years but thanks to the introduction of incredibly smart touchscreen devices, such as the Apple iPhone in South Africa and looming competition from other big players such as Google's Android, Blackberry's Storm, and Nokia's N97, we are likely to see an explosion of mobile web usage and exciting new applications which will change the way people interact with their mobile devices.
- New startups and product innovation: cheaper, more ubiquitous broadband and 2010 mean that there will be a host of opportunities on offer for entrepreneurs, as well as big business, to get involved in launching new products and services aimed at tourists and South Africans. On a side note, the global economic downturn will result in more people with time on their hands and this could very well lead to the next 'big thing'. Believe it or not, Motorola, HP, and Intel were all started during an economic downturn (read here for more on this).
- Rise of ultra-portable PCs and netbooks: at first, critics poopooed the idea as being nothing more than an over-hyped children's toy, but over the past year the market has really warmed up to ultra cheap and portable devices such as the Asus Eee and Acer Aspire One. Due to their disposable price tag and impressive list of features (new models come standard with 3G built in) they are the perfect companion for executives tired of lugging 4kg monsters around from one meeting to the next and they also function as pretty good entry-level machines for low-income households.
- Cloud computing: with a constantly improving Internet infrastructure that spans all corners of the globe and the fact that every device from a mobile phone to a gaming console now comes fitted with an ethernet or wireless connection, it's very likely that 2009 will be a defining year for "cloud computing".
For those of you that haven't heard this term before, it applies when software is treated as a service and information is stored permanently on centrally located servers for convenience and peace of mind. Google might've helped popularise this paradigm with services such as Google Docs but Microsoft, desperate to reposition itself in a turbulent market, recently announced plans to release a new cloud operating system called Azure, so expect to hear a lot more about cloud computing and how you as an individual or a company can take advantage of it in the coming months.
- eBooks and electronic paper start to mature: We might not see the Amazon Kindle in South Africa anytime soon, but the popularity and global appetite for electronic books has unquestionably grown in leaps in bounds since Amazon launched the device in the US just over a year ago.
Besides Amazon, there is a growing list of online retailers that sell eBooks and there are rumours that local stores will soon follow suit. Competition from other eBook device manufacturers such as Sony is increasing and electronic paper (e-paper) technology is dropping in price all the time, so we will most certainly see eBooks become popular in South Africa even without Amazon's support.
- Twitter becomes a household name: the popular micro-blogging platform that was a virtual unknown a little over a year ago is set for prime time in South Africa in 2009, where it will be used extensively by political parties and voters in the runup to the next national elections. Don't be surprised when it cracks a mention in a TV commercial, a defining moment for technology and geeks alike, for a well-known food brand (just like blogs did a few years back).
About Colin Daniels
Colin Daniels is publisher of The Times Online (www.thetimes.co.za and was also responsible for establishing and overseeing Avusa Media's first digital innovation unit (iLab), which focuses on developing cutting-edge mobile and web applications for the South African Internet. Read his blog at www.colindaniels.co.za and follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/youngblood.