We may be in the throes of a global financial crisis, but that doesn't mean we won't see innovation on the web. In fact, leading trend analysis blog Read Write Web reminds us of the old cliché that “tech innovation thrives in times of recession”. Tight economic conditions incubate intense creative and lateral thought, because a person's very survival is at stake. And the stakes are high.
There just isn't money to throw around and a cushion to fall back on. It perhaps explains why innovation in the online space often emanates from shoe-string garage operations, as opposed to many big, cash-flush corporates such as Microsoft. Also, think of all those unemployed people forced into entrepreneurship... we'll be seeing a whole new generation of web entrepreneurs borne out of this recession.
It's going to be a wild 2009, and here are some key trends to watch out for:
Publishing and e-commerce sites as social networks: All major sites will have social network layers allowing users to connect to each other, facilitating peer recommendation of content and sharing of content. The New York Times is leading the way with its recently launched TimesPeople which does just this. Viral functionality such as “Send to a friend/email a friend” will make way for more sophisticated sharing that involve mining email contact lists. The stark differences between a social network and a publishing/media site will diminish over the years, as publishers wake up and encourage their readers to connect and share — much like social networks.
Niche social networks: Expect a raft of niche social networks and exclusive networks to launch. The thing about Facebook is there is no privacy — people will want privacy, intimacy and specialisation in some cases (for example, a person joining a social network focused on a medical condition). There will be some big launches, too: Apple will launch a social network, akin to Facebook, but initially mobile driven from the iPhone. With its scalability issues under control, Twitter will jack up its rather thin offering, with an improved user interface and more social networking features.
Applications continue moving online: 2009 may be a seminal year for this trend and it will be catalyst for full-out warfare between Google and Microsoft. We've seen how Google launched Google docs, an online version of Microsoft Word and Excel. It was a direct lunge at Microsoft's jugular. Microsoft, which is like a dangerous mangy dog, will respond by launching its own online versions of Word, Excel and Powerpoint to take Google head-on. Microsoft may go a step further and turn Outlook into an online social network, arguably where email and contacts are headed anyway. Google will retaliate by announcing an online operating system, rivalling Windows, linked to a new GooglePC, a strike at the very heart of Microsoft. This may actually be an extension of Android, its Mobile OS, which it will extend to other digital devices — not just the mobile phone. We may see activity happening the other way too, with Facebook launching a browser.
Explosion of mobile content and advertising (and other digital devices): It's become passé to talk about the exponential growth of the mobile web, because it's just so damn obvious. Early trends are telling a story of unbelievable growth, showing previous estimates to be too conservative — an unusual thing for the hype-prone online sector. Indications are that in South Africa, the mobile web - still in its infancy — is already double the size of that of the traditional web in terms of readers. It's not going to be just about cellphones, however; we'll see more digital devices come online too, including digital cameras, car radios and even microwaves.
Multimedia content and advertising: As broadband marches on, so interactive video advertising will increasingly become key. It's surprising how many traditional publishers and advertising agencies have not got to grips with multimedia advertising as an offering. There is just nothing like an assault on all senses for advertisers to get the message across. It beats a banner ad.
Targeted/profile-based advertising: Inspired by Google's Adsense, which is by far the most superior advertising model ever created, online media will get its act together and deliver advertising and content that is targeted. Targeted advertising means relevant advertising, which is infinitely more useful to the user and advertiser. We'll see another big player launch an online advertising network, perhaps even a consortium of online publishers tired of splitting ad revenue with Google. Microsoft will extend its own Adwords model and finally launch a self-service Adsense rival, which is currently under trial.
Personalised content: As the web continues to pile up with masses of content and the user is overwhelmed, publishers will look at ways of delivering only content that is relevant, based on a user's surfing habits, profile and demographic information and peer recommendations. This will trump privacy concerns, as it will be such a useful and necessary thing.
Blogging as social networks: Blog dashboards will include contacts and people to market/ share content. Social networks will upgrade their blog abilities. Blogs don't social network very well, and social networks don't blog very well. We'll see a coming together of these two types of social media. The chief innovator here will be Wordpress.
Monetising international traffic: This will be the year that major publications wake up and realise that the Internet is an international medium. Borders and regions are relevant to a print publication delivered in a truck, but not the Internet. Media owners will look at their highly fragmented international audiences and look at new ways of monetising their international traffic, apart from just slapping on Google Adsense.
Better and more inclusive application of “user generated content”: Publishers will develop a more sophisticated understanding of content generated by users (UGC). They will understand that their user base is varied and contains different types of users, with different abilities. They will identify experts in their community and interact with them differently.
Computer-generated content (CGC) via semantic tag structures: these will play a key role in helping us organize and categorise content on the web. They will help aggregators and filters organise and process information, making sure only high quality, influential and relevant stuff is seen.
Matthew Buckland is GM of Publishing at 24.com. He's the former boss of the M&G Online and co-founder of blog aggregator Amatomu.com and group editorial blog Thought Leader. He has spoken locally and around the world on online media issues, including New York, London, Amsterdam, Germany, Dublin and Kenya. He's a prominent blogger, blogging regularly at www.matthewbuckland.com on new media, Web 2.0 and technology issues.
Great article highlighting some very interesting and exciting new things for 2009! I thought I'd mention a new ning competitor called SocialGO. I've been playing around with the platform and it looks incredibly good... I think this will definitely be one to watch out for in the new year... Posted on 12 Jan 2009 12:32
Great article and I have to agree that we'll see a lot of new businesses starting up on the web. Barriers to starting an online business were never very high to start with, and are now non-existent. Using the kinds of online services available (ASPs) already you can start an online business with minimal outlay.
People worried about their jobs should start up businesses they can run from home in the evenings. Then if they are retrenched there will already be something up and running. And if they aren't retrenched it might end up bigger than their day job anyway!
And yes, please, will the major publishers realise that there's value in their international traffic. And stop thinking that only the readers of the home page are of any value. Posted on 12 Jan 2009 13:31
Great post. Seeing as that there are now so many social networks catering to such a wide range of niches, my biggest problem is finding ones relevant to me and related to my specific interests or product niches. Google seems to be inefficient and returns alot of irrelevant results. A cool resource that I use is this search engine designed specifically to find social networks called "Find A Social Network" Posted on 13 Jan 2009 03:46
Social networks need reform..Narbage, netverts and nads-
I don’t know about you but I find the current offering by social networks quite boring. There is little fun in adding a contact as a friend and then sending them a virtual beer to down. Most contacts are added and then never spoken to again...am I right? Those using Facebook to do email messaging run the risk of it being read a few days down the line, because people are wary of interacting with Facebook or other SNS during work hours.. it wastes time..being bombed by narbage (my new word for net garbage).
I think social networking has to become relevant to the users and the content (being president) should be valuable to the audience. If users could pay a small amount not to be exposed to netverts while watching a lecture on organic vegetable gardening this would create two revenue streams, and those not willing to pay the opt out fee could view for free, valuable content they are interested in, and advertisers will then know they are reaching their target audience.
The concept of Omnivision (being able to see and hear what you want, when you want, anywhere any time) is getting closer with web enablement. All we need is the business model to fulfill our knowledge needs, and make it viable for editors to produce content that sells nads (you guessed it.. Net adds) I would value comment to develop this idea into a working model. Posted on 14 Jan 2009 11:38
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