Latest TAMS July universe shows significant pay TV increase
The current TAMS universe update reflects the new population updates by IHS Global Insight. The IHS demographic model differs from the previous demographic supplier SAARF used in a number of technical areas. These include the following:
- The cohort component model handles mortality in a different way, specifically with regard to the impact of HIV/AIDS.
- For regional distribution, slightly different techniques are employed.
- The model is checked for consistency with the economic, labour, income and development factors of every region in South Africa.
Due to these methodological differences between the current and previous demographers, the resultant population updates are different to the previous population estimates for a number of demographics.
In the TAMS 15+ universe, there has reportedly been significant population increases in metropolitan areas as well as a significant decrease in the rural population. A few provinces namely Northern Cape, KZN, Mpumalanga and Gauteng have increased, while some provinces saw decreases, including the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Limpopo and most notable North West.
Although not significant, LSM 6 increased by 6.9% to 7 518 738, up from 7 031 159. LSM 10 (with a decrease of 3.8%, down from 2 187 894 to 2 105 104), LSM 9 (with an increase of 4.1%, from 3 007 468 up to 3 129 350), LSM 8 (with an increase of 3.8%, from 2 784 117 up to 2 889 648) also saw noticeable changes although they were not statistically significant.
The 2011B TAMS universe has increased from 11 196 628 to 11 856 888 households (with PVR homes included). This is an increase of 5.9% and quite a bit ahead of the population change of 2.8% (adults 15+ up from 29 209 654 to 30 039 437). Pay TV has also seen significant increases in the 15+ population figures, up from 9 292 804 to 10 098 224, representing a gain of 8.7%.
The tables below show the following:
- The universe that will be implemented in July 2012 (AMPS 2011B TV metered universe)
- The differences between AMPS 2011A and AMPS 2011B TV metered universes.
Source: AMPS 2011A -6 months - TAMS Universe (All Adults 15+). Includes individuals with PVR in home
| Total | Satellite | Non-Satellite | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Females Afr/Bth | 2 459 557 | 912 169 | 1 547 388 |
| Males Afr/Bth | 2 291 794 | 926 828 | 1 364 967 |
| Females Eng/Oth | 1 770 843 | 942 303 | 828 540 |
| Males Eng/Oth | 1 662 531 | 932 724 | 729 807 |
| Females Ngn | 5 871 823 | 1 455 042 | 4 416 781 |
| Males Ngn | 5 155 519 | 1 402 428 | 3 753 091 |
| Females Sot | 5 256 827 | 1 301 028 | 3 955 800 |
| Males Sot | 4 740 759 | 1 195 858 | 3 544 901 |
| 29 209 653 | 9 068 380 | 20 141 275 | |
| Western Cape | 3 415 562 | 830 560 | 2 585 002 |
| Northern Cape | 641 682 | 193 486 | 448 196 |
| Free State | 1 985 953 | 595 217 | 1 390 736 |
| Eastern Cape | 3 414 608 | 801 512 | 2 613 096 |
| Kwazulu-Natal | 5 444 353 | 1 915 440 | 3 528 915 |
| Mpumalanga | 1 978 496 | 662 026 | 1 316 469 |
| Limpopo | 3 406 369 | 654 870 | 2 751 500 |
| Gauteng | 6 477 456 | 2 822 222 | 3 655 234 |
| North-West | 2 445 174 | 593 047 | 1 852 127 |
| 29 209 653 | 9 068 380 | 20 141 275 | |
| LSM 1-4 | 4 727 909 | 66 387 | 4 661 523 |
| LSM 5-7 | 16 502 265 | 3 617 445 | 12 884 820 |
| LSM 8-10 | 7 979 479 | 5 384 548 | 2 594 932 |
| 29 209 653 | 9 068 380 | 20 141 275 |
Source: AMPS 2011B -6 months - TAMS Universe (All Adults 15+). Includes individuals with PVR in home
| Total | Satellite | Non-Satellite | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Females Afr/Bth | 2 410 365 | 958 808 | 1 451 557 |
| Males Afr/Bth | 2 217 582 | 971 219 | 1 246 363 |
| Females Eng/Oth | 1 648 683 | 960 270 | 688 414 |
| Males Eng/Oth | 1 546 154 | 936 580 | 609 574 |
| Females Ngn | 6 079 502 | 1 639 986 | 4 439 515 |
| Males Ngn | 5 900 295 | 1 762 641 | 4 137 653 |
| Females Sot | 5 285 147 | 1 291 419 | 3 993 728 |
| Males Sot | 4 951 709 | 1 397 302 | 3 554 407 |
| 30 039 437 | 9 918 225 | 20 121 211 | |
| Western Cape | 3 380 152 | 969 785 | 2 410 367 |
| Northern Cape | 664 079 | 199 053 | 465 026 |
| Free State | 1 884 835 | 501 584 | 1 383 251 |
| Eastern Cape | 3 253 853 | 882 411 | 2 371 442 |
| Kwazulu-Natal | 5 541 976 | 1 780 881 | 3 761 095 |
| Mpumalanga | 2 212 646 | 742 549 | 1 470 097 |
| Limpopo | 3 194 212 | 784 400 | 2 409 812 |
| Gauteng | 7 753 756 | 3 534 209 | 4 219 547 |
| North-West | 2 153 928 | 523 353 | 1 630 574 |
| 30 039 437 | 9 918 225 | 20 121 211 | |
| LSM 1-4 | 4 889 073 | 157 413 | 4 731 660 |
| LSM 5-7 | 17 026 262 | 3 988 281 | 13 037 981 |
| LSM 8-10 | 8 124 102 | 5 772 531 | 2 351 571 |
| 30 039 437 | 9 918 225 | 20 121 212 |
Thousands difference between 2011A and 2011B Universes
| Total | Satellite | Non-Satellite | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Females Afr/Bth | -49 192 | 46 639 | -95 831 |
| Males Afr/Bth | -74 212 | 44 391 | -118 604 |
| Females Eng/Oth | -122 160 | 17 967 | -140 126 |
| Males Eng/Oth | -116 377 | 3 856 | -120 233 |
| Females Ngn | 207 679 | 184 944 | 22 734 |
| Males Ngn | 744 776 | 360 213 | 384 562 |
| Females Sot | 28 320 | -9 609 | 37 928 |
| Males Sot | 210 950 | 201 444 | 9 506 |
| 829 784 | 849 845 | -20 064 | |
| Western Cape | -35 410 | 139 225 | -174 635 |
| Northern Cape | 22 397 | 5 567 | 16 830 |
| Free State | -101 118 | -93 633 | -7 485 |
| Eastern Cape | -160 755 | 80 899 | -241 654 |
| Kwazulu-Natal | 97 623 | -134 559 | 232 180 |
| Mpumalanga | 234 150 | 80 523 | 153 628 |
| Limpopo | -212 157 | 129 530 | -341 688 |
| Gauteng | 1 276 300 | 711 987 | 564 313 |
| North-West | -291 246 | -69 694 | -221 553 |
| 829 784 | 849 845 | -20 064 | |
| LSM 1-4 | 161 164 | 91 026 | 70 137 |
| LSM 5-7 | 523 997 | 370 836 | 153 161 |
| LSM 8-10 | 144 623 | 387 983 | -243 361 |
| 829 784 | 849 845 | -20 063 |
Percentage change between 2011A and 2011B Universes
| Total | Satellite | Non-Satellite | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Females Afr/Bth | -2 | 5 | -6 |
| Males Afr/Bth | -3 | 5 | -9 |
| Females Eng/Oth | -7 | 2 | -17 |
| Males Eng/Oth | -7 | 0 | -16 |
| Females Ngn | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Males Ngn | 14 | 26 | 10 |
| Females Sot | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| Males Sot | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| 3 | 9 | 0 | |
| Western Cape | -1 | 17 | -7 |
| Northern Cape | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Free State | -5 | -16 | -1 |
| Eastern Cape | -5 | 10 | -9 |
| Kwazulu-Natal | 2 | -7 | 7 |
| Mpumalanga | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Limpopo | -6 | 20 | -12 |
| Gauteng | 20 | 25 | 15 |
| North-West | -12 | -12 | -12 |
| 3 | 9 | 0 | |
| LSM 1-4 | 3 | 137 | 2 |
| LSM 5-7 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| LSM 8-10 | 2 | 7 | -9 |
| 3 | 9 | 0 |
The TAMS universe is made up of all households, both rural and urban, with mains electricity and at least one working TV set. TAMS measures all platforms both analogue and digital and both terrestrial and satellite. Personal viewing data is captured by the TAMS meter for all household members aged four and older, and includes all guests in the home. Domestic workers are also included in the TAMS universe but are treated as separate households.
Like all TAMS panels worldwide, SAARF TAMS uses an establishment survey to estimate the size of the television universe, which will set the parameters of the sample. In South Africa TAMS uses the All Media and Products Survey (AMPS) for this purpose and the TAMS universe is therefore adjusted every six months with each new AMPS release (normally in about January and August each year).
An establishment survey is the only way to correctly reflect the relative sizes of all the different TV platforms at a given moment in time and to measure TV accurately, SAARF also needs to know amongst other things, how many TVs, and M-Net and DStv decoders, etc. people have. This information is sourced from AMPS.
While people are continuously buying new TV equipment, it is sufficient to update the TAMS universe only once every six months after new AMPS data is released as stated above. These updates routinely take place.
Updating the universe regularly ensures that the TAMS data remains up to date with changes happening in the TV arena, changes which are brought about by the constant addition of new households to the TV-viewing population, new pay-TV providers and the inexorable move to Pay TV.
For more, go to www.saarf.co.za.