November retail trade growth seen at 7.0%

Growth in SA's retail trade sales at constant (2008) prices for November is expected to lose a bit of momentum and clock in at 7.0% year on year (y/y), from a y/y growth of 7.4% in October, according to a survey of leading economists by I-Net Bridge.

By Zeenat Moorad

16 Jan 2012

Forecasts among the six economists ranged from 4.3% to 7.9%.

Citigroup economist, Jean-Francois Mercier said they expected that real retail sales had plateaued somewhat in November, barely increasing on a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis after several strong gains in the previous months.

He added that the average of October/November however would still be about 2% higher than the third quarter mean, and their forecast would still be consistent with a real, y/y rate in excess of 7.0%, for the fourth month in a row.

"Thus, we would still be talking of underlying strength in the retail sector, especially as the y/y comparison does not come off a particularly weak base.

"And in nominal terms, sales growth probably would exceed 11% y/y for the fourth consecutive month, thanks to a continued gradual rise in inflation at the retail level," he said.

The November retail trade sales data will be released by Statistics SA at 1pm on Wednesday, 18 January.