Focus on the 'upside'

Here are my predictions for 2009:

1. Survival of the fittest: Agencies will experience a shakeout and those that allowed relationships to wither or have not based their offer on sound thinking and inspired creative will be affected. They will reduce in size or disappear altogether as clients take this last opportunity to streamline operations before getting locked on target for 2010.

2. Running to stand still: Any agency worth its salt will have a presentation entitled 'recession - an opportunity to grow market share', which it should have already pitched to any of its major clients which are wavering about how much to spend in 2009. As always, the future lies with agencies who take the initiative, rather than sitting around with their mouths ajar, waiting for budgets to be set and briefs to come through.

3. More product, less brand: Brand communication won't disappear but we are likely to see an increase in briefs to push products, offers or specific aspects of service. There will be a shift towards selling tangible elements of the brand in question, rather than its values or ethos.

4. Less risks, more of what i know: Return on investment will become more important than ever as budgets shrink and accountability becomes more important. Brands will fall back on tried and tested approaches rather than take risks. If approaches such as direct response, coupons and competitions are potentially relevant to the business problem, they will be considered much more seriously.

5. Tell people we're better than 'own label': There will be concern about consumers trading down to cheaper, more affordable alternatives in most categories - especially FMCG. Briefs will start coming through to tell consumers what great value for money we are. This is fine, once we talk up the benefits and quality of our offer, rather than simply saying that we are 'cheap'. If we panic and take this route, the short term sales gained will be paid for over the long term in erosion of brand equity.

6. We're all in this together: Some brands will hook into the famous South African ability to laugh at the situation in trying times and display optimism or 'devil may care' attitudes in the face of adversity. The fact that the slowdown in SA is due to distant forces leaves us with no immediate villain to blame, rather a creating a spirit of being all in it together.

7. We're there for you in trying times: While some brands may be flippant about the current climate, most will want to appear to be there for consumers while things are tough. Brash confidence is out for the time being and empathy is in. Several banks in the UK have been forced to change their sparky, upbeat campaigns to avoid their branches being set alight by bitter consumers - Halifax's singing bank manager is no more...

8. Just show me the green shoots: It's not all bad. South Africans want to consume. They only need the smallest of hints that things are coming right (and access to credit) to get out there and begin spending again. All of the signs are in place for this to start happening during the course of the year. Inflation is no longer the inexorable force it was, petrol is getting cheaper, interest rates increasingly look set to fall

9. The 'year to go' bounce: South Africans' pride in their country and appreciation of the opportunity to be showcased on the world stage should give rise to a bounce around June time, when we have only a year to go until 2010. This will be tinged with panic as the doom mongers point out that various stadia are only half built and Zakumi has somehow been copyrighted by a shwarma vendor in East London. You can choose which path you take here. Personally, I'm going to focus on the upside!