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Africa's aviation connectivity gap widens despite rising demandAfrica now has 55 commercially viable intra-African routes without direct flights, up from 45 a year ago, despite growing passenger demand and several new route launches, according to Embraer's 2026 Africa Connectivity Report.  Image source: Gallo/Getty Released during the AviaDev conference in Gaborone, the report argues that airlines continue to face significant opportunities to expand regional networks. It concludes that the main challenge is no longer demand, but matching markets with the right aircraft and network strategies to sustain direct services. Unserved routes continue to growThe report identifies 55 intra-African origin and destination (O&D) pairs that are not served by scheduled non-stop flights but have sufficient passenger demand to support direct services. Cape Town-Lagos tops the 2026 ranking with an estimated 70 passengers travelling daily each way, followed by Cape Town-Lusaka, Dakar-Libreville, Bamako-Libreville and Abuja-Nairobi. Three South African routes feature in the top 10: Cape Town-Lagos, Cape Town-Lusaka and Durban-Mauritius. According to the report, the increase in unserved routes indicates that Africa's connectivity gap is widening rather than narrowing. Demand outpaces network expansionSeveral unserved markets recorded passenger demand growth of more than 50% year-on-year, despite travellers continuing to rely on one-stop connections through regional hubs. Among the fastest-growing routes were: • Johannesburg-Mwanza (+272%) The report attributes growth across these markets to a mix of leisure, business, diplomatic and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) travel. Route launches reshape the rankingsSeveral city pairs dropped out of the rankings after direct services were introduced over the past year. Cape Town-Dar es Salaam, previously ranked eighth, exited the list after Air Tanzania launched the route in December 2025. Abidjan-Douala also dropped out after Kenya Airways introduced a non-stop service, while Dakar-Cotonou is scheduled to receive direct flights from Air Senegal during July 2026. Meanwhile, Durban-Mauritius climbed from 13th to sixth place after passenger demand increased from 18 to 27 passengers travelling daily each way. The report estimates the market could support three weekly non-stop flights using a 120-seat aircraft. Right-sized aircraft key to expanding connectivityThe report concludes that many unserved African routes fall below the passenger volumes typically required for larger narrowbody aircraft but are well suited to regional jets or smaller narrowbody aircraft. It also notes that launching a route alone is not enough to ensure long-term success. Frequency, schedule quality and matching aircraft capacity to market demand remain critical to sustaining new services. "The findings show that the challenge is not demand but matching each market with the right aircraft and frequency. Many of these routes can be successfully served with right-sized aircraft, enabling airlines to improve efficiency, increase connectivity and unlock new revenue opportunities," the report concludes. |