SA tourism rebounds, but key markets still lag – Satsa
David Frost, CEO of Satsa, says: "The sector is certainly moving in the right direction, with overall recovery year-to-date reaching 91% of pre-pandemic levels for overseas arrivals. However, declaring victory now and claiming credit risks missing critical insights necessary for sustained, long-term growth."
Despite headlines celebrating total arrivals exceeding 2019 levels for January to October, Frost notes: "Total arrivals are up 2% on pre-Covid volumes, with October alone posting a 31.5% year-on-year surge. But these numbers are heavily influenced by regional and African land markets. When you look specifically at overseas arrivals, we remain 9% behind 2019. Key markets such as Europe and Asia continue to lag. The story looks very different once you move beyond the headline figure."
Uneven markets
Satsa’s analysis shows contrasts between strong and underperforming markets.
• The United States has reached 105.7% of 2019 arrivals.
• Australia stands at 109.4%.
• Germany posted 126.9% growth quarter-on-quarter versus 2024, but is at only 85.1% of 2019 year-to-date.
• France, despite 113.2% Q3 growth year-on-year, sits at 80.4% of 2019 volumes.
Frost explains: "The headline growth figures appear remarkable at first glance, but these percentages reflect comparisons against Q3 2024, which was an exceptionally weak period (74% of 2019 levels). Year-on-year surges can create a false sense of comfort. Triple-digit growth does not mean a market has fully recovered when benchmarked against 2019."
Arrivals from China remain a concern, reaching only 42.4% of 2019 levels between March and October, highlighting the need for targeted marketing and digital visa improvements.
Air access and strategic connectivity
Air connectivity continues to shape recovery. Brazil’s rebound from 25,672 arrivals in 2023 to 49,855 in 2024 was supported by direct flights from SAA and Latam. Latam plans to launch São Paulo–Cape Town flights in September 2026.
The UK has crossed the 90% recovery threshold for overseas arrivals in 2025, with British Airways operating at 142% of 2024 capacity. Frost notes: "It is not simply about adding more seats. It is about where those seats are placed, which markets they serve, and whether they support growth in high-yield and underperforming regions. Total capacity may be recovering, but we are still below 2019 long-haul capacity to Europe, and that has a direct impact on arrivals."
The Middle East also presents opportunities, but current data underestimates the market due to travellers using non-Middle East passports.
Visa policies and market competitiveness
Visa access remains a key factor. Frost says: "We have clear evidence that removing bureaucratic barriers works. When visa restrictions for Russia were lifted in March 2017, arrivals surged by 133% year-on-year. Similar opportunities exist today."
Mexico’s inclusion in the Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) system could drive growth if paired with targeted engagement.
Strategic collaboration needed
Frost urges differentiated recovery strategies: "We cannot apply a one-size-fits-all approach. We need proactive, targeted market campaigns and structured engagement where private sector expertise is included from the start of planning."
“Satsa reaffirms its commitment to structured and collaborative engagement with South African Tourism as the best way to address challenges. The private sector can act quickly and effectively where gaps exist," he adds.
Looking ahead
Frost concludes: “We have made substantial gains, but the real test is whether we can translate short-term recovery into long-term competitiveness. This requires moving beyond month-to-month celebrations and asking harder questions about market mix, air capacity, visa performance and geographic spread.
"The challenge now is to use this intelligence to futureproof growth so that South Africa does not simply return to its 2019 baseline, but outperforms it in a way that benefits the entire country."