Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research, comments: "At this point in time, consumers' outlook is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the UK's general economic situation over the coming year. In addition, the climate for major purchases has worsened, suggesting the government can't rely on people spending their way out of the double-dip recession that is likely to be on the horizon."
The overall index score this month has increased by 2 points to -32, 13 points lower than this time last year. Three of the measures saw decreases this month, and 2 measures staying at the same levels as September 2011. The annual moving average drops 1 point to -27.
| Measure | Oct 2011 | Sept 2011 | Oct 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index Score | -32 | -30 | -19 |
| Personal financial situation - last 12 months | -24 | -24 | -13 |
| Personal financial situation - next 12 months | -10 | -10 | -2 |
| General economic situation - last 12 months | -62 | -58 | -43 |
| General economic situation - next 12 months | -31 | -27 | -20 |
| Climate for major purchases, such as furniture or electrical goods | -32 | -28 | -15 |
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last12 months has stayed the same this month at -24; this is 11 points lower than this time last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has stayed the same this month at -10; this is 8 points lower than October '10.
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has decreased 4 points this month at -62; 19 points lower than this time last year.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next 12 months has decreased by 4 points to -31, 11 points lower than October '10.
The major purchases measure has decrease 4 points this month to -32, which is 17 points lower than this time last year.
The 'now is a good time to save' Index, has increased four4 points to -10, which is 4 points lower than October '10.
The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK NOP on behalf of the EU, with similar surveys being conducted in each European country. In producing its own reports on the whole of Europe, the EU applies a seasonal adjustment to the data, to smooth out any changes that are functions at least in part of the time of year.
Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission
The GfK Association was established in 1934 as a non-profit organization for the promotion of market research. Its membership consists of approximately 600 companies and individuals. The purpose of the Association is to develop innovative research methods in close cooperation with academic institutions, to promote the training and further education of market researchers, to observe the structures and developments in society, the economy and politics that play a key role in private consumption, and to research their effects on consumers. Survey results are made available to the membership. The GfK Association is a shareholder in GfK SE.
Go to: http://www.gfk.com
