Radio audiences declining - Oct RAMS

On average, 2.6 diaries were placed in small urban/rural households, increasing the release sample size from 18 624 diaries in the previous survey, to 24 313 diaries currently - an increase of 34%.

This flooded small urban/rural database replaces the Jan-June 2008 six-month component used to produce the national releases earlier this year. The Oct 2009 survey now uses data gathered from Jan-June 2009. (Flooding is when all members of the sampled household are given a diary to complete, and not just the primary diary keeper.)

The new universe is 32.499-million strong, an increase of 3.8% or 1194-million people, which reflects the new 2009 population estimates supplied by the Bureau of Market Research of UNISA (BMR). The final release for 2009 is scheduled for 2 December.

RAMS gets younger

This is also the first release to include 15-year-olds, in line with the AMPS survey (although the AMPS 15+ database has not yet been released). This added an additional 626 diary keepers to the samples equalling 974 000 15-year-olds in this universe.

The inclusion of 15-year-olds however, has not had a large impact on the incidence of radio listening, since comparatively, the 16+ and 15+ listening levels are almost identical.

Many stations however, have proven to have large followings of 15-year-olds. Below are the top 10 stations in terms of 15-year-old listeners:
1. Ukhozi FM: has gained 212 000 15-year-old listeners
2. Umhlobo Wenene FM: 154 000
3. METRO FM: 125 000
4. Thobela FM: 87 000
5. Lesedi FM/5FM: 85 000
6. 99.2 YFM: 79 000
7. Motsweding FM: 75 000
8. 94.2 Jacaranda: 64 000
9. Capricorn: 62 000
10. East Coast Radio/Ikwekwezi FM: 55 000

For trending purposes, databases released during the next 12 months will include both the 15+ and 16+ universes.

Listening levels remain down

As in previous releases, the October 2009 release shows that the incidence of total listening is significantly down, both period on period and year on year.

• Past 7 days: from 94.4% in October 2008 and 90.8% in August 2009, to 87.0% (16+) and 87.1% (15+) currently
  
• Average Monday to Friday: from 77.8% in October 2008 and 74.0% in August 2009, to 69.8% (16+ and 15+) currently
  
• Saturday listening: from 72.1% in October 2008 and 67.1% in August 2009, to 64.8% (16+) and 64.9% (15+) currently
  
• Sunday listening: from 71.0% in October 2008 and 66.4% in August 2009, to 64.6% (16+ and 15+) currently

These overall declines were driven by declines in listening in the small urban/rural sector. Large urban levels remain stable on the Aug 2009 release across the week, while small urban/rural listening has declined across the year (the impact of flooding amounted to only 4% for weekly listening in this sector).

These are the listening levels for the small urban/rural sector (16+, Oct 2008 vs Oct 2009):

• Past 7 days: from 95.6% to 88.0%
  
• Average Monday to Friday: from 80.1% to 72.0%
  
• Saturday listening: from 74.1% to 69.0%
  
• Sunday listening: from 73.4% to 68.7%

Time spent listening is down

Time spent listening (TSL) decreased by 19 minutes period on period, influenced strongly by lower listening in the new flooded small urban/rural sector, which experienced a decrease of 31 minutes across the year.

Upon stripping out the new flooded diaries from the small urban/rural sample for comparison with the year previous, SAARF found that TSL was still down, by 22 minutes. This shows that only nine minutes, or 4% of this 31-minute decline was due to the new flooding methodology.

This is in line with the decline seen when flooding was introduced to the large urban component - then, TSL declined by 5%.

The latest TSL figures are:

• TSL in total: down by 19 minutes, both over the year previous and over August 2009. 16+ stands at 26h48 per week and 3h50 per day, while 15+ TSL is 26h42 per week and 3h49 per day
  
• TSL in large urban areas (16+): 3h44 (unchanged over the previous survey)
  
• TSL in small urban/rural areas (16+): 3h56 per day (down from 4h27 in the 2008 component)

Station trends

Two youth stations have shown significant growth over the year previous, and not just because the age limit was dropped.

• 5FM has taken its weekly reach into SA from 5.3% in Oct 2008 to 6.0% (16+) and 6.1% (15+), growing its audience base from 1,651 million a year ago to 1,983 million (15+)
  
• 99.2 Yfm reached 4.2% of South African adults each week in the year previous. Today, the station reaches 4.8% (16+) and 4.9% (15+), increasing its audience from 1,314 million in Oct 2008 to 1,580 million per week currently (15+)

Regional radio

Regional station, North West FM, has also shown significant growth, both over the previous survey, and the year previous. From 1.3% reach in Oct 2008, and from 1.1% reach in Aug 2009, North West FM has grown its weekly reach to 1.9% (16+, and 15+). The station's weekly audience is now at 608 000 (15+), with gains especially in the North West, small towns and villages, rural areas, in LSM 5-6, and amongst 15-34-year-olds and those aged 50+.

On an average Monday to Friday, this station has increased its audience over the previous survey. From 0.6% reach in Aug 2009, North West FM now reaches 0.9% of South African adults (based both on 16+, and 15+). Gains were seen primarily in small towns and villages, amongst males, in LSM 6 and amongst 15-34-year-olds.

PBS radio

Radio 2000 is still on the growth path. The PBS station has grown both its weekly and average Monday to Friday audiences, over the previous survey as well as year on year.

Its weekly audience is up from 1.1% in Oct 2008, and from 1.5% in the previous survey, to 2.3% (16+) and 2.2% (15+). Its total 15+ audience is now 721 000 per week, up from 358 000 in the year previous. Major contributors to these gains were increased audiences in the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga and rural areas, as well as LSM 4 and 15-24-year-olds.

On an average Monday to Friday, Radio 2000's reach rose from 0.3% in the year previous and 0.5% in Aug 2009, to 0.8% (both 16+, and 15+). Small towns and villages, rural areas, males, LSM 1-5 and the 15-24 age bracket were the demographic groups behind these gains.

Community radio

Five community stations also grew their weekly audiences.

• In the Eastern Cape, Alfred Nzo Community Radio 98.3/93.8 fm boosted its reach across the week from 0.7% in both October 2008 and August 2009, to 6.5% (15+), with 317 000 listeners.
  
• In Gauteng, Impact Radio is up on October 2008, from 0.2% per week to 0.7% (16+ and 15+), with 48 000 listeners in total.
  
• Also in Gauteng, VCR/90.6 FM Stereo also grew its reach from 0.1% in October 2008, to 0.4% currently (16+ and 15+).
  
• In KwaZulu-Natal, Newcastle Community Radio's weekly reach is up from 1.4% in the previous survey, to 2.2% (16+).
  
• Radio Khwezi, in KwaZulu-Natal, is also looking up, both over the year previous and Aug 2009 when its reach was 2.0%, to 3.6% (16+) and 3.8% (15+) currently.

Radio losses

A large number of radio stations have lost audience, with significant declines coming through both over the year previous (Oct 2008) and over the previous survey (Aug 2009).


For more:

RAB: RAMS Oct 2009 pdf