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    July PPI drops marginally to 8%

    Producer inflation as measured by the producer price index (PPI) for final manufactured goods fell marginally to 8% year-on-year in July, down from 8.1% in June‚ Statistics South Africa figures show.
    Investec's Chief Economist Annabel Bishop believes producer price inflation will fall further this year as food and petroleum prices drop. Image: Investec
    Investec's Chief Economist Annabel Bishop believes producer price inflation will fall further this year as food and petroleum prices drop. Image: Investec

    Producer inflation rose by 0.5% from June to July mainly because of high prices of food products‚ beverages and tobacco products.

    Although food prices remain high‚ they have come off their worst levels supported by surplus grains harvests and a firmer rand.

    Barclays Africa Economist Peter Worthington said food price inflation suggested that consumers should not get too complacent about food prices.

    The bank expects another 25-basis points increase in interest rates before the end of the year.

    Producer inflation had been expected to moderate to 7.9% according to a BDlive median consensus forecast from a survey of 11 economists.

    Stats SA's figures showed that food products‚ petroleum products‚ machinery and transport equipment were the main contributors to producer inflation on a year-on-year basis.

    Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop said producer inflation was likely to fall further this year as food price inflation at the agricultural level continued to drop‚ the rand oil price moderated and demand price pressures were muted.

    Nedbank economists also shared this view‚ saying they expected producer inflation to continue declining in coming months‚ although at a modest pace as global food and energy prices moderated.

    The PPI for intermediate manufactured goods was 8.5% in July compared with 9% in June. The index rose 0.2% on a monthly basis.

    The main contributors to the annual rate of 8.5% were chemicals‚ rubber and plastic products‚ and basic and fabricated metals.

    The annual percentage change in the PPI for electricity and water was 7.8% in July compared with 8.2% in June. Municipalities implemented higher water and electricity tariffs in July.

    The annual percentage change in the PPI for mining was 7.8% in July compared with 5.8% in June‚ while the PPI for agriculture‚ forestry and fishing increased by 3.9% in July compared with 4.5% in June.

    Source: I-Net Bridge

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